Mohamed Nouri
President of the Association of Moroccan Graduates in Spain (ADME)
Addressing the future of Ceuta and Melilla means entering a territory where emotions often cloud political analysis. From my perspective as a Tetouani, educated at the crossroads of both cultures and committed to defending multiple identities, the purpose of these lines is to invite us to move beyond traditional reactive approaches, break with established inertia, and transform a historically divisive emotional labyrinth into a space for rational deliberation that directly addresses the challenges ahead.
The Futile Exercise of Returning to the Past to Forget the Present
The controversy surrounding the status of Ceuta and Melilla reveals a deep divide in contemporary historiographical analysis. On the one hand, leading international academic research — supported by European and Anglo-Saxon specialists such as Mármol Carvajal, Asín Palacios, Bernard Lugan, Rom Landau and C. R. Pennell — broadly agrees in placing the genesis of the Moroccan state in 789 AD, under the Idrisid dynasty.
In open opposition to this view, a revisionist current has emerged, promoted by certain Spanish international lawyers and actors within the local environment of both cities. This interpretation seeks to shorten the historical trajectory of the Moroccan state, assigning its formal origin to the independence of the protectorate in 1956 or, in a slightly broader reading, to the Alaouite dynasty in 1666.
This restrictive and tendentious interpretation reflects a methodological bias by making Morocco’s legitimacy dependent on a linear institutional continuity. Yet this standard of political purity is by no means applied to Western powers, whose historical genealogies have themselves experienced dynastic ruptures, fragmentation and chronic territorial transformations.
In any case, framing this dispute through rigid national categories and mutually exclusive sovereignty paradigms leads both nations towards a sterile monologue and a dead end. The Moroccan argument — based on geographical continuity and historical markers of local sovereignty — and the Spanish approach — grounded in institutional continuity and the current legal framework — neutralise one another when presented as absolute truths.
Neither narrative, taken in isolation, can fully encompass such a complex cross-border reality, whose resolution requires honesty, strategic vision and intelligent solutions.
The Current State of Affairs: A Space of Dispute and Vulnerabilities
There is no denying that Ceuta and Melilla, particularly the former, are two points of maximum geostrategic vulnerability due to the convergence of multiple critical factors. Their strategic location in the Strait of Gibraltar and their proximity to European territory place them on the front line of tensions, in a context further complicated by a latent territorial dispute and by the presence of one of the world’s borders with the greatest socio-economic asymmetry.
These conditions act as a constant driver of structural migratory flows, against which technological and physical barriers prove insufficient. This reality is aggravated by the lack of legal and diplomatic mechanisms for returns to countries of origin and transit.
The materialisation of this risk was witnessed during the crisis of 30 July 2026, when a massive influx overwhelmed control systems within a matter of hours and had an immediate impact on the local demographic situation. This episode confirms that, in practice, both cities operate as “Grey Zones” — border spaces where disinformation and human mobility can become instruments of pressure within hybrid-conflict strategies.
The latest Afrobarometer report (2026) indicates that migratory pressure in the region will experience a major increase, driven by the reality of a predominantly young continent that is already home to more than 1.5 billion people.
Challenges and Turning Points: Innovative Responses to Complex Problems
Every conflict contains an inherent duality: it can lead to a destructive scenario or, alternatively, serve as a catalyst for structural reforms. From the latter perspective, the concept of Imperfect Peace — understood as a dynamic and continuous process, imperfect yet capable of improvement — provides an appropriate framework for adapting, redefining and negotiating agreements as challenges evolve and expectations change.
This conceptual framework directly calls upon Morocco and Spain to assume shared responsibility, encouraging both states to manage their differences in a mature, constructive and peaceful manner. The aim is to break the chronic deadlock that perpetuates the conflict, safeguard shared historical ties and prevent the region from becoming a space instrumentalised by external geopolitical interests.
The viability of this model requires setting aside unilateral and arrogant approaches in favour of horizontal, empathetic and respectful dialogue. The objective is to overcome the outdated logic of the “zero-sum game”, in which one actor’s gains inevitably correspond to the other’s losses.
It also requires joint and proactive action by the European Union, Spain and Morocco to address this structural crisis institutionally. Such shared governance represents the only way to guarantee stability in Ceuta and Melilla, key areas of demographic and cultural convergence between Africa and Europe.
Inaction in the face of this challenge threatens social peace along the border and pushes Morocco to question its alignment with the European space.
It is therefore urgent to open new horizons through a gradual strategy based on the following fundamental principles:
– Revitalising the Regional Economy
Advocating for a hermetically sealed border is unviable in the face of a five-to-one socio-economic gap, compounded by the structural legacy of historical smuggling and the socio-economic impact of its abrupt closure.
If Brussels wants stability on its southern flank, it must create a shared development zone that integrates the local population and thereby expands the buffer and security zone.
To achieve this, it is imperative to revive and update the PAIDAR-Med Plan (2000), the strategic project designed to develop Morocco’s Mediterranean region, which was stalled by political shifts in Spain.
Its reactivation, this time under the institutional and budgetary support of the European Union, would protect it from the partisan changes that frustrated its implementation in the past.
– Morocco’s Definitive Integration into the European Union
Continuing to reject such accession on geographical grounds makes little logical sense while the European Union maintains borders on African soil. Despite its outstanding challenges, Morocco is the most stable and developed partner in its surrounding region.
Its integration would represent a strategic turning point in Europe’s relations with the Sahel and the African continent.
Of course, moving from “Advanced Status” to full integration would not be easy. It would require amendments to the territorial provisions of the treaties and a profound process of economic, democratic and human-rights harmonisation that would take years of work.
Nevertheless, the long-term benefits would be incalculable. Morocco’s accession to the EU and the Schengen Area would dismantle the current border.
As this line of friction in North Africa gradually disappeared, Ceuta and Melilla would cease to be used as “Grey Zones”, thereby neutralising the conflict at its root.
From that point onward, the Euroregions model would make it possible to move from confrontation towards beneficial and balanced socio-economic co-management, protected by European Union legislation and its economic funds.
Conclusion
“Not correcting oneself after making a mistake is the real mistake,” Confucius warned.
Ignoring the complexity of the reality surrounding Ceuta and Melilla risks repeating past crises. Confrontation is a destructive path for both countries, one that would only accelerate border disorder, security paralysis and a severe economic impact.
To prevent this, the European Union must take the initiative and defuse this geopolitical hotspot through a three-step roadmap: close the regional socio-economic gap, fully integrate Morocco into the European Union, and establish a cross-border Euroregion encompassing Ceuta and Melilla as well as the neighbouring Moroccan provinces.
An allied Morocco is vital to Europe; a Morocco that is relegated, by contrast, represents an inevitable systemic risk.
In a changing environment, solutions must evolve at the same pace as the challenges.
